# population and workforce planning

The assignment will be administered in three parts (A, B and C). The maximum credit for the
assignment is 40% of the maximum total credit for the unit. The maximum credit for Part C is
15% of the maximum total credit for the unit.
You must do all parts of the assignment independently (i.e. without extensive help from other
people). Penalties for cheating or plagiarism or excessive collusion will be severe. You should
briefly outline the methods used to obtain particular results, as well as presenting the final
answers. Late submission will be penalised according to the schedule of penalties described in
the unit guide. No extension requests will be granted, unless an application for special
consideration with documented evidence of unavoidable disruption is submitted and approved.
The maximum numbers of marks which can be awarded for the various parts of a question are
shown in square brackets.
Please do not include the instructions or the questions in your submitted answer.
Table A presents values of lx and Tx by age for a life table for females in China in 2014:
Table A
Age lx Tx
0 100,000 7,468,364
5 96,315 6,985,239
10 96,102 6,504,194
15 95,943 6,024,078
20 95,716 5,544,930
25 95,369 5,067,216
30 94,970 4,591,365
35 94,506 4,117,676
40 93,948 3,646,543
45 93,154 3,178,790
50 91,966 2,715,991
55 90,065 2,260,915
60 87,137 1,817,912
65 82,323 1,394,263
70 74,902 1,001,200
75 63,212 655,662
80 48,203 376,872
[1] (a) Calculate life expectancy at birth for a Chinese female in 2014, rounding your
answer to 2 decimal places.
[0.5] (b) Calculate the probability a Chinese female aged 15 exactly survives to age 80
exactly, rounding your answer to five decimal places.
[0.5] (c) Calculate the probability a Chinese female aged 0-4 survives the next five years
rounding your answer to five decimal places.
Table B shows the numbers of females (in thousands) by age on 30/6/2014, age-specific fertility
rates (per 1000) for 2014, annual net migration (in thousands) by age for 2014 (note negative
signs indicate a net outmigration), and labour force participation rates by age for 2014.
Table B
Age Last
Birthday
(x)
Number of
Females on
30/6/2014
(000s)
ASFR 2014
(per 1000)
Annual Net
Migration 2014
(000s)
LFPR on 30/6/2014
(%)
0-4 38,538 -6 0.0
5-9 36,286 -4 0.0
10-14 34,931 -2 0.0
15-19 36,975 7 -10 32.0
20-24 50,235 134 -20 69.3
25-29 62,062 113 -24 82.1
30-34 48,320 40 -12 83.2
35-39 46,379 11 -6 84.4
40-44 58,138 4 -4 84.8
45-49 60,866 1 -2 80.1
50-54 48,753 0 62.4
55-59 38,817 0 53.8
60-64 38,602 0 40.6
65-69 25,733 0 27.6
70-74 16,992 0 13.9
75+ 25,445 0 5.6
[2] (d) Describe and give reasons for the variation in the numbers of females by age on
30/6/2014, shown in Table B.
[0.5] (e) Calculate the Total Fertility Rate for China in 2014, expressing your answer on a per
woman basis and rounding your answer to two decimal places.
[4] (f) Project the numbers of females in China in total and by age on 30/6/2019 assuming
the following:
female mortality between 30/6/2014 and 30/6/2019 is as per the levels in Table A,
all age-specific fertility rates remain constant at the levels in Table B,
the sex ratio at birth is constant at 115 males per 100 females,
annual net migration numbers by age remains constant at the levels in Table B,
all age-specific female labour force participation rates on 30/6/2019 are the same as on
30/6/2014.
You should state clearly the survivorship ratios you use (rounded to 5 decimal places)
and give each projected number by age to the nearest thousand females.
[4] (g) Describe and account for the differences between your projected female population
by age for 30/6/2019 and the female population by age on 30/6/2014.
[0.5] (h) Calculate the total numbers of Chinese females in the labour force on 30/6/2014,
giving your answer to the nearest thousand.
[1] (i) Assuming all age-specific female labour force participation rates on 30/6/2019 are
the same as on 30/6/2014, project the total number of females in the labour force on
30/6/2019, giving your answer to the nearest thousand.
[1] (j) Briefly explain why the total number of females in the Chinese labour force is
projected to decrease even though the total number of females in the population is
projected to increase.
For Part (d) the maximum length of answer is 300 words and for Part (g) the maximum length
of answer is 500 words. You may illustrate your answers to Part (d) and Part (g) with up to one
additional graph per part. For Part (g) you may incorporate interpretation of descriptive
statistics e.g. percentages, mean or medians into your answer. However it is not necessary to
provide details of the calculations. The marking for Parts (d) and (g) will reflect; the extent to
which your reader is informed by your answer, the level of understanding which is apparent, the
provision of overview, conciseness, clarity, accuracy, relevance, avoidance of plagiarism, and
adherence to length limits and timelines for submission.
For part j) the maximum length of answer is 100 words.