Analysis / Forecasting Data

 
Scenario: You are still a consultant for the Excellent Consulting Group. You have completed the first assignment, developing and testing a forecasting method based on linear regression (Case 3). However, your consulting manager at ECG wants to go the next step and investigate another forecasting method. It is important to do a thorough job for the client, and you have the expertise to analyze different forecasting methods. You have decided to look at the sales data for client’s lottery app as a single data set and use a time series analysis, namely SES, single exponential smoothing.
Case Assignment
Using Excel, use the forecasted sales (select tab on bottom) from Case 3 to compute the MAPE, by doing the following:
1. Find the MAPE for the first 12 months (assume the forecast for Month 1 – or January – is equal to January’s actual sales). To find the MAPE, you will need to compare actual sales for each month, or Y(t), to forecasted sales, or F(t).
2. Next, forecast the sales for the next three months (Feb – Apr), and compute the MAPE for this 3-month period. Compare this 3-month MAPE to the MAPE you calculated for the SES analysis (Case 4).
Then write a report to your boss that briefly describes the results that you obtained. Make a final recommendation on which method to use, SES or Linear Regression.
Paper should include two files: (1) An Excel file; and (2) A Word document.
Data: See attachment with data that I previously have and generated from your analyses in Case 3.
Assignment Expectations
Analysis
• Accurate and complete SES analysis in Excel.
Written Report: (Use Heading for paragraphs)
• Length requirements = 4 pages minimum (not including Cover and Reference pages)
• Provide a brief introduction/ background of the problem.
• Complete and accurate Excel analysis.
• Written analysis that supports Excel analysis, and provides thorough discussion of assumptions, rationale, and logic used.
• Complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s).
* Note: See attachments with Case 3- Data for assignment and complete instructions. Paper should include two files: (1) An Excel file; and (2) A Word document

Organizational Behavior Project

This project involves two parts: an individual student paper and an individual student presentation with a total of 150 possible points.

Part One- Individual Student Paper – 125 points

In this project, individual students will conduct primary research to analyze how managers utilize key elements of organizational behavior concepts such as leadership, decision making, motivation, etc. in their organizations. You may choose any organization and you may choose any leadership role within the organization.

To accomplish this task:
1. Choose an organization
2. Choose a leadership position within the organization
3. Write a 5-7 page paper – introducing the organization and the leader, be sure to cite your sources properly.
4. Create a 3-5 minute presentation

Things to cover in the paper:

Brief history of the organization

Suggestions on what to cover regarding the leadership position:
Personality
• What personality traits does the leader/leadership exhibit? What do you think this manager’s Myers-Briggs personality assessment is? Why? What type of personality assessment do this manager’s employees have?
Motivation
• Which type of motivational theory does this manager use? Why? How? What motivates this manager? What motivates their employees?
Stress
• What sources of stress does this manager have? How is it managed? What sources of stress do this manager’s employees have? How does this manager handle their employee’s stress?
Decision Making
• What types of decisions does this manager usually make? What style of decision making is used? Why? Are employees involved in decision making?
Team Dynamics
• What teams are in this organization? What are their characteristics, size and composition? What are the team’s norms? Is the team cohesive? How does this manager deal with social loafing?
Team Building
• How does the manager build trust in their teams? How does team building occur?

Communication
• What type of communication commonly occurs in this organization? What is the most effective form? Why? What communication barriers commonly exist? What cross cultural and gender issues in communication exist?
Power
• What sources of power are evident in this manager’s organization? How does this manager influence their employees?
Conflict and Negotiation
• What sources of conflict exist in this organization? How is conflict managed?
Leadership
• What type of leadership style does this manager have? Is it effective? Why?

Length and Format:

Part One should be 5-7 pages long plus cover page and reference page, double spaced, Times New Roman 12 point font, with 1 inch margins.

One full page is approximately equal to 300 words. Therefore, this paper should be somewhere between 1,500 and 2,100 words. Provided the paper covers all the requirements of this assignment, there is no penalty for papers longer than 7 pages, or 2,100 words.

This assignment must be submitted as a hard copy and as a Microsoft Word file (attached to an email).

Due Date: Thursday, December 3, 2015

Part Two- Individual Student Presentation – 25 points

This part involves a 3-5 minute individual presentation in which students will present to the class the information detailed in your team paper. Your presentation should be informative and creative. Begin with a brief introduction of the organization, and then detail each of the main topics.

PRESENTATION DATE: Thursday, December 3, 2015
Attendance is mandatory.

Grading of Presentation:
This project will be graded according to the following criteria: 70% content of material presented; 30% presentation style.

Mastering the Art of the Five Minute Presentation
http://sbinformation.about.com/od/marketingsales/a/fiveminuteprese.htm

The five minute presentation is the most challenging of all presentations to create and deliver. The five minute presentation from an audience perspective is more engaging and less boring than a typical sixty minute talk.

Creating a compelling, focused speech with a single message is the ultimate goal of the five minute presentation. Whether you are crafting the five minute presentation for a venture capital pitch, selling a product, or educating an audience — the creation process is the first vital step. But is five minutes enough time?

What Can Be Accomplished in Five Minutes?
Five minutes doesn’t seem like much time to accomplish anything but keep in mind the insight of George Matthew Adams:
• Napoleon wrote that the reason he beat the Austrians was that they did not know the value of five minutes.
• It took Lincoln less than five minutes to deliver his immortal Gettysburg Address.
• In less than five minutes William Jennings Bryan electrified a great political convention with but a single expression that gave him the nomination for the presidency of the United States.

Five Ways to a Successful Five Minute Presentation
Apply these five methods to your five minute presentation for a memorable means to engage your audience.

Dig Deep: Although your material is limited for your five minute presentation, you’ll still need to do enough research to understand your topic and extract the essence of your talk.

Simple Is: Once you have the materials, narrow down your topic to one core concept. As stated by Chip and Dan Heath, authors of Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die state, “How do we find the essential core of our ideas? To strip an idea down to its core, we must be masters of exclusion.” It’s all about just one idea.

Practice, Practice: Rehearsal is critical for a short presentation. You have no time to pause or collect your thoughts. To engage your listeners you’ll need to be smooth not bumbling.

Lead With Wow: During a five minutes presentation you have little time to build a case or draw your audience in. The best approach is to lead with a compelling or controversial position. Make them think right of the bat.

Tell a Story: A presentation full of facts, figures and statistics will quickly lose your audience. One stat may be fine to reinforce a point. But if you want to create a memorable presentation tell a story.
A great five minute presentation is more than enough time to get your funding, educate an audience or sell a client as well as a chance for your five minutes of fame.

The three concepts of drug, set and setting correspond closely with the well-known public health triangle comprised of the agent, the environment, and the individual. It is these three elements that essentially make up the ‘drug use experience’.

 
The three concepts of drug, set and setting correspond closely with the
well-known public health triangle comprised of the agent, the environment,
and the individual. It is these three elements that essentially make up the
‘drug use experience’. For this assessment task, you will be asked to
consider these three elements and apply them to one substance, and explain
how these may interact to cause either a negative or positive effect related
to the use of that substance.

appendix

 
I need to finish 5 pages appendix (PICTURES and wordings), which are ” direct mail piece #1 ,direct mail piece #2 and first Email and second email. please do almost the same as what the sample did. But their topic is different from us, so please read carefully about what out project requirement is. stay on the right truck by looking through what the sample did as refer information. stay the same format (find PICTURES and couple words). drop down to find direct mail and mail appendix. Everything should be based on our slogan. “SHOW THEM WHAT WE “RE MISSING”. Facebook customs audience

Below is our project content information

(Campaign Goal)
The goal of this campaign is to increase awareness of Facebook Custom Audiences in small-medium sized B2C businesses. This campaign will highlight the retargeting tool of CA, as well as the ability to merge a company’s customer list with Facebook Advertising. The average click-through rate for display ads is 0.07%, but for retargeted ads it is 0.7% (cmo.com). That statistic illustrates that retargeting is 10 times more effective than advertising alone. Increasing the Facebook Custom Audience market will be beneficial to both Facebook and the companies who use it due to CA’s proven effectiveness.
(Competitive Analysis)
Social media platforms such as Twitter, LinkedIn, and Google+ are using similar tactics as Facebook’s custom audience features to capture their prospective businesses. Examples of these are Twitter’s Tailored Audiences, LinkedIn Lead Accelerator, and Google’s Display Network. Each custom audience system gains tailored audiences from email lists, web-page visits and mobile app visits to target the right people. Twitter’s Tailored audiences allow businesses to use their information from retargeting companies like Chango and Perfect Audience. Most competitors try to avoid using information from potential competitors, but Twitter embraces it as one of its major positive aspects. LinkedIn Lead Accelerator focuses on how businesses that are in the B2B industry can gain competitive advantage by using their system. Unlike Facebook, Twitter, or Google, LinkedIn uses email lists that usually contain more professional emails, shifting its focus towards B2B businesses. Finally, Google’s Display Network advertises similarly, using links on their main page for businesses to learn more about the program. Recently Google has taken Facebook’s lookalike concept to match potential customers to the right businesses. Google’s Display Network, which achieves slightly better results, uses personal gmail accounts, ad clicks on Youtube and Google, and user web page visits. Google’s Display Network continues to infringe on personal privacy, leaving Facebook Custom Audiences in a relatively good position in the market. (REFERENCE FIGURE OF GRAPHIC)
(Target Market)
The size of the target audience is one million businesses. The segment will include a combination of small and medium-sized businesses. New research from LinkedIn found that “the majority (81%) of small and medium-sized businesses are turning to social media for growth” (Mashable, 2014). Facebook will help small-medium sized companies to grow fast and create new opportunities to promote a product to a more targeted audience.
The target audience will include VP of Marketing, Director of CRM Marketing, Agency VP, and Agency Account team leaders who spend advertising budgets to reach consumers. These employees are already aware of the possibility to advertise via Facebook. However, they are not utilizing the Custom Audience feature. These are the company leaders of medium-sized businesses who find interesting content to share and spend time on social media. They have disposable income and they might have signed up but never created a campaign, or created a campaign but stopped using the platform. Main consumer needs include utilization of Facebook tools for promotion and advertisement of the product or service, increased visibility of the product in the market, and increased sales. This segment will be expanding in the future due to rapid introduction of social media in the workplace of new companies, as well as an overwhelming globalization approach. The segment accounts for 65-75% of the entire market. Facebook is seen as a potential business tool, which can reach different audiences through the suggested toolkit. Each part of the process is essential for the long-term vision of the project. (Make depiction of persona?)
(IMC Objectives)
(Creative Strategy)
Creative Strategy
Major Selling Idea: Our idea focuses on the scenario of a guy that has unfortunate luck with finding a romantic partner. He keeps striking out with every women he meets either mainly because he does not present himself in the best possible way and he gets beat out by other guys until he decides to have makeover. After his transformation all of a sudden he’s a hit with the ladies and displays a new sense of confidence to the audience.
Slogans and Call to Actions: With this campaign we decided that our main slogan for our target audiences is “Show them what they’re missing”. We came up with this pitch because it emphasizes to our audience how Facebook Custom Audiences will be able to display a business in a more effective light to the consumer. With Facebook Custom Audiences, businesses can advertise to prospective customers with more success since the customers sees the features and aspects of your business in more highlighted fashion than it would through other mediums. Also, one of our sub slogans for this campaign is “Remind them how awesome you are”. This sub slogan goes more along with one of Facebook Custom Audiences more distinct feature of their retargeting tool. Most small to medium size businesses do not have the same marketing reach as big businesses to reach customers or re approach customers after a failed first attempt. This slogan displays to our target market that they can market like big businesses and that they can retarget audiences that didn’t quite capture with their first message. Finally, our Call to action through this campaign will be to “Find your makeover at www.facebook/businesses.com” that way the audience has another resource they can look to find more information about the product and decide if they really want it.
Creative Rationale: This campaign will feature mostly a mixture of rational and emotional appeals. The rational appeals is crucial for us because businesses need to be able to recognize the added benefits that Facebook Custom Audience will be able to provide for them. The advertisements features clear indicators to businesses saying how they would be able to expand their reach into more target markets. It will also include emotional appeals because when it comes down to it there is always a person behind every business that will make the ultimate decision. This ad campaign will encourage a self confidence boost in most small to medium sized businesses that watch the material. Finally there is a slice of life appeal that is also incorporated in the fact that everybody can relate to a situation where they don’t quite get what they’re hoping

Media plan

Media Planning
Promotional Mix Strategy
Website- Facebook should advertise its Facebook custom Audiences feature on the business landing page. When users first arrive the main attention-getter will be the new button feature that will allow users to jump immediately to the Facebook Custom Audience page. There will be text displaying “for more experienced Facebook business users get the next best thing in online advertising with Facebook CA.” Hopefully this will encourage current Facebook users to acquaint themselves with Custom Audiences to see if it is the right. The text should also effectively communicate to small to medium sized business that in order to compete in their competitive market then Facebook Custom Audiences is the way to go. Also our next main attention getter will be a blue banner that runs across the top of the screen below the subject line that will advertise our limited time only consultation session. This consultation session encourages businesses that might be concerned about effectively utilizing Custom Audiences to experiment with the product. Also our last addition to the landing page will be a new subject called Custom Audiences right next to the Learn How title. This will give users another opportunity to get access to information that could convince them in buying the Custom Audience product. Finally, throughout our campaign we will feature a link to facebook businesses webpage on most of our touchpoints.
Direct Mail- The direct mail piece
Online Video – Facebook should create and publish a commercial style video online for their Custom Audience feature. This will work as a video representation of the creative strategy. In the beginning, a young, awkward male will be attempting to get the attention of a pretty female. Unfortunately, because he is socially awkward and fails to communicate his interest, he will not be successful in his attempt to woo her. Then he will get a “makeover” that will update his wardrobe and give him a new found confidence. He will once again try to attract the attention of the same girl, this time being more direct and charismatic, and successfully win her interest. This will be a metaphorical depiction of how Custom Audiences works. It retargets potential customers with whom they were not able to convert into real customers during their first interaction.
Social Media/Paid Search- Periodically throughout our campaign, we will use social media and search engine optimization, or SEO, to entice our audience to Facebook Custom Audiences. In social media, we will use Facebook’s own platform to create a Custom Audience page and make weekly posts about either a specific feature in Custom Audiences, like the retargeting tool, or the segmentation analysis program. Also, in our weekly Facebook posts we will illustrate the big selling idea like we do in other campaigns that encompasses the general premise of making over your marketing strategy to obtain a wider range of customers. Finally, another important aspect of our marketing through Facebook posts will be displaying some of the customer benefit programs, like our consultation session for when businesses first sign up for the service. The main purpose of our Facebook posts is to reiterate what our other aspects of the marketing campaign display, but to a potentially different audience. We will approach the Paid Search with a wider marketing net to see if we can find a potentially interested businesses. With our Facebook posts, the audience that visits our Facebook page are generally already interested in the product, but with Paid Search that might not be the case. Paid Search will feature Google AdWords as its mode of communication. AdWords will be able to highlight words such as segmentation, retargeting, and specific advertising. When potential customers search these words in Google, our landing page link will appear depicting Facebook’s business page to give our audience another touchpoint to capture. These links will be in prime locations to encourage clicks to visit the website since the link will either be on the right side of the page or directly underneath the search bar. The purpose of this aspect of the campaign is to gain awareness from customers that might not know that they are interested in Custom Audiences or that are merely unaware of the product. We plan to utilize this portion of the campaign after about a month into initial media exposure in order to not detract from other crucial aspects of the campaign.
Email- Facebook should send out an email to all companies currently using their Facebook Advertising features, explicitly informing them of their new, cutting edge Facebook Custom Audience tool. The email should include a link at the bottom, which will take them directly to the Facebook Custom Audience landing page. This will serve as the first touch point, with the primary objective of creating awareness for the new tool and trying to compel the customer to go to the website. This email should have a “Try Now” button that takes them directly to the landing page. The benefit of this email is the speed and ease with which the customer can get the email to start the process of purchasing Facebook Custom Audience. The subject line of this email should our slogan “show them what they’re missing” to catch customer’s attention. This email should be designed with attractive colors, which subtly depict the logos of Facebook. In a large font at the center of the email should be a brief description highlighting the features of Custom Audiences and its benefits. Just below the brief description is where the ‘Try Now’ button should be placed. Upon clicking the button, the client will be directed automatically to the Custom Audience page.
Existing Customer Communications- Because Facebook’s target is those small to medium sized companies already using Facebook Advertising, a good way to bring Facebook Custom Audiences to their attention and encourage them to take action would be through their bill. When their bill for Facebook Advertising is sent, we will include a button which says “Try Facebook Customs Audiences”. This will link them the landing page which will give them more information about what custom audiences is, and direct them to the link to the page in which they can sign up for Custom Audiences.

Operations Management: Volvo Productive Model Case Study

 
Instructions
Read the following case study:
Holweg, M., Pil K., F. “A Break from the Past: Volvo and its Malcontents” pp. 309-331

Answer the following questions:
1) What were the main design principles affecting process design at Volvo’s Uddevalla plant?
2) What is the relationship between process design at Volvo’s Uddevalla plant and the emergence of customer-oriented and built-to-order approaches to car manufacturing?
3) What were the differences between the Volvo and Ford volume/variety strategies?
4) Which operation strategy should Geely pursue to valorise Volvo’s production
technology and brand and what they could learn from the Fiat experience with the Melfi plant in the 1990s?

Please use Operations Management theory and concepts from the lecture slides (pdf.) provided. In addition to that, please use the relevant articles to the case study that I’ll also will provide.

This essay must be cited using Harvard style referencing.

. case study of individual worker about Ergonomic

 

For the strucure of case report please :contents, introduction , Description of chosen work , Ergonmic problems of this work, Justifying mand carrying out the a form of task analysis ( Ergonomic tool of assessment such as MAC , RULA,REBA ), Sloutions in long-term and short-term and suggestions for following changes in workplace, Conclusion and discussion , references , appendices

(Media Relations Final Draft

I have search about (Media Relations Final Draft). The first time I finished (Media Relations First Draft). It was outline. My Dr. Gave me a lot of notices about (Scottrade Center). My professor want to writing for (Scottrade financial services)

Spams and Cybercrime ( should address the perspective “Forensics and law”)

 
 Margin sizes of 2.54 centimetres
 Font of Calibri
 Font size of 11
 Line spacing of 1.15

Research paper 6 papers excluding reference + annotated bibliography

Write a research paper on this topic:
(Spams and Cybercrime)
the research paper should address the following perspective:
(Forensics and law)

The question:
Forensic investigation of spam campaign:

e.g.
Son Dinha, Taher Azeba, Francis Fortinb, Djedjiga Mouheba, Mourad Debbabia. “Spam campaign detection, analysis, and investigation”, Digital Investigation. Volume 12, Supplement 1, March 2015, Pages S12S21.

(This reference are a starting point for the research. You should find additional relevant material)

Complete a literature search related to the subject area from your perspective to find out what other has been written about in this area.
You should collect as many relevant papers as possible; but you should use your time wisely and focus on reading the abstract rather than the full paper. You should consider the quality of the publication or the venue that it was presented.

should demonstrate your understanding of the issues relevant to the research question. The paper should clearly answer the research question, and all the content should be relevant to the research question.
The paper is supposed to be a critical evaluation of the literature, rather than a simple repetition of several sources using your own words. This means that you have to summarise, interpret, reflect and be critical about what you have read and about the sources you actually use.
It is up to you to structure the paper logically and to ensure coherence among sections and paragraphs. The language used should be specific, precise, objective, direct and simple. Do not use colloquial language. Apart from short quotes, use your own words and use short sentences, appropriate for technical writing.

Please use in-text citation where required (not enough just listing the references at the end of the), based on the Harvard referencing style2.

Also, be careful, I would like the reference come in the sentence where you use the ideas and information, with page number please
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
TITLE
+
annotated bibliography

The annotated bibliography is an alphabetical list of relevant references written using the Harvard referencing style1.
Annotate the bibliography by restating
* the main arguments
* provide a short summary (i.e. just summarize the main findings, without a critical analysis) of the most important related works in your reference list.
You should annotate a minimum of 3 (most relevant to your research question) sources, 400 words, excluding the entire bibliography list.

( This assignment contributes to the assessment of the following module learning outcomes,
1- Critically evaluate methods and techniques used for cybercrime
2 – Critically analyse the extent to which methods and solutions to cybercrime, proposed in research papers, apply in practice and what are their limitations.

science fiction

 
It’s a science fiction paper based on gender roles.
The paper talks about three narratives in particular:
Left hand in darkness by LeGuin
When it Changed by
The Screwfly solution

The instructions for the paper is attached to how to do what these 3 stories- they all must talk about gender roles and stereotypes using other reputable sources mentioned below..

It also must have 3 other reputable sources.The sources must be based on the attached document I have (the prof wants particular sites only)

**** It must provide direct quotes from the primary source to show my arguments are justified***
MLA incitations
Specific format- in the instructions sheet